NEWGENNewgen Software Technologies Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Computers - Software & Consulting
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹6,945 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
10 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in competitive position. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

40.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹518.1▲17.35%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+12.8 pts
Earnings Quality
+12.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-15.0 pts
Final Composite Risk10 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 9 → 10 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Cash Conversion Deficit
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Debt growth
  • Operating cash flow
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
NEWGEN: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth has slowed, indicating weakening demand environment.

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)1.585.07✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+56.0+55.5✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Computers - Software & Consulting (n=36 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹518.1(+17.35%)
1M Divergence-3.46%
1 Week+18.84%
1 Month+2.44%
6 Months-42.5%
1 Year-57.7%
2 Year-42.8%
3 Year+56.67%
Sector Average (1M)+5.9%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

NEWGEN • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.2246σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1471 of 2716
Top 54.16% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+18.8%
1M+2.4%
6M-42.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹647.86
200 DMA₹706.98
150 DMA Slope-7.8713%Declining
Relative Strength-37.01%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.4961
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10.5).
NEWGENNewgen Software Technologies Limited
10 Risk
Sector %ile40th
Delta+5
Active Flags3
Accel+2
Competitive Position

Stable

3IINFOLTD3i Infotech Limited
10 Risk
Sector %ile40th
Delta+5
Active Flags13
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Stable

HCLTECHHCL Technologies Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile91th
Delta+20
Active Flags9
Accel+4
Earnings Quality

Watch

ACCELYAAccelya Solutions India Limited
39 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta-6
Active Flags11
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
5.252th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
3.636th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,641301232-
FY20251,550315215-
FY20241,29225228149
FY20231,0081761364