NHPCNHPC Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Power Generation
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹73,731 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
26 / 100
-2 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure is receding in project execution and margins. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Minor improvements are visible in the risk trend.

47.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹72.29▼6.36%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+18.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+7.9 pts
Final Composite Risk26 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 3 → 26 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Low Interest Coverage
  • Negative FCF Streak
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 32.5 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
NHPC: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.50x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
NHPC: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
NHPC: Revenue fell 2.6% while Debt rose 10.2% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.587.30✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+40.0+39.5✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Power Generation (n=18 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹72.29(-6.36%)
1M Divergence-13.49%
1 Week-7.84%
1 Month-13.11%
6 Months-4.29%
1 Year-15.21%
2 Year-29.27%
3 Year+79.92%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

NHPC • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score22.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.5494σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2138 of 2716
Top 78.72% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-7.8%
1M-13.1%
6M-4.3%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹78.05
200 DMA₹79.1
150 DMA Slope-0.9878%Declining
Relative Strength+1.20%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1383
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (26.5).
ACMESOLARAcme Solar Holdings Limited
10 Risk
Sector %ile18th
Delta+5
Active Flags9
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

NHPCNHPC Limited
26 Risk
Sector %ile47th
Delta-2
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

ADANIGREENAdani Green Energy Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile65th
Delta-5
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
110th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.747.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202612,6864,2203,29452,134
FY202511,7293,4125,02639,434
FY202410,9944,0286,93832,493
FY202311,2854,2354,69229,488