NIBENIBE Forensic Risk Analysis

Aerospace & Defense
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
30 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in growth sustainability. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

60.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,541▲1.29%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability
+9.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
+20.0 pts
Final Composite Risk30 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 30 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
NIBE: EBITDA margin compressed by 39.0 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (40.6%) amidst slow revenue growth (-85.6%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
NIBE: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -3.99x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
NIBE: Net Profit collapsed by 1074.4% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 15.7%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (228.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (129.8%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
NIBE: Revenue fell 6.6% while Debt rose 46.5% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.367.38✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+36.0+46.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Aerospace & Defense (n=21 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,541(+1.29%)
1M Divergence+41.21%
1 Week+8.12%
1 Month+43.48%
6 Months+53.64%
1 Year-7.71%
2 Year+56.62%
3 Year+56.62%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in growth sustainability suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

NIBE • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.38%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score65%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing38%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+2.2690σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#75 of 2716
Top 2.76% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+8.1%
1M+43.5%
6M+53.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,093.9
200 DMA₹1,142.36
150 DMA Slope-2.0005%Declining
Relative Strength+59.13%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)3.0489
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (20).
APOLLOApollo Micro Systems Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

AEQUSAequs Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta+15
Active Flags3
Accel+2
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

NIBENIBE
30 Risk
Sector %ile60th
Delta-5
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Growth Sustainability

Watch

DCXINDIADCXINDIA
53 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+18
Active Flags29
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
0.44th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2025

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20264780-35107
FY2025512272573