NITCONITCO Forensic Risk Analysis

Ceramics
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
20 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

66.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹98.07▲0.65%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+20.0 pts
Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 20 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 75.2%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
NITCO: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -1.65x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
NITCO: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (19.7%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-18.1%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
NITCO: Revenue fell 15.0% while Debt rose 10.4% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.677.02✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+46.0+48.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Ceramics (n=4 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹98.07(+0.65%)
1M Divergence+8.84%
1 Week+3.22%
1 Month+11.1%
6 Months+18.74%
1 Year-28.58%
2 Year+36.59%
3 Year+412.11%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

NITCO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.17%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score55%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing17%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.6523σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#366 of 2716
Top 13.48% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+3.2%
1M+11.1%
6M+18.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹88.56
200 DMA₹95.83
150 DMA Slope-2.0367%Declining
Relative Strength+25.00%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.4917
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (17.5).
KAJARIACERKajaria Ceramics Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile33th
Delta-5
Active Flags9
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Stable

NITCONITCO
20 Risk
Sector %ile67th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ASIANTILESAsian Granito India Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+24
Active Flags22
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202655429-153304
FY2025328-741-148286
FY2024330-163-9971
FY2023388-1513880