NLCINDIANLC India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Power Generation
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹35,082 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
15 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

29.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹349.1▲3.79%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+15.0 pts
Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 3 → 15 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Profit Collapse
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 12.7 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
NLCINDIA: Net Profit collapsed by 86.4% from FY2023 Q4 to FY2024 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
NLCINDIA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.29x in FY2026 Q1 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
NLCINDIA: Revenue fell 19.8% while Debt rose 0.3% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)47.30✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+51.0+39.5✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Power Generation (n=18 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹349.1(+3.79%)
1M Divergence+9.89%
1 Week+1.66%
1 Month+10.27%
6 Months+48.97%
1 Year+48.67%
2 Year+52.48%
3 Year+297.97%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

NLCINDIA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.98%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score100%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing98%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+1.0594σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#225 of 2716
Top 8.28% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+1.7%
1M+10.3%
6M+49.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹270.36
200 DMA₹265.4
150 DMA Slope+3.5526%Rising
Relative Strength+54.45%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)3.0715
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (26.5).
ACMESOLARAcme Solar Holdings Limited
10 Risk
Sector %ile18th
Delta+5
Active Flags9
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

NLCINDIANLC India Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile29th
Delta-5
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

ADANIGREENAdani Green Energy Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile65th
Delta-5
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

GIPCLGIPCL
30 Risk
Sector %ile65th
Delta-5
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Margin Compression

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202618,4673,7695,16627,802
FY202516,8892,7148,97722,392
FY202413,9461,8685,62422,379
FY202317,3831,4263,76122,306