Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹163.87(▲0.56%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

NOCILNOCIL Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: NOCIL Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Specialty Chemicals

Risk ClassWatch

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverCompetitive Position

Flagium AI Risk Score

29 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

72.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹163.87▲0.56%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position

+15.0 pts

Earnings Quality

+6.6 pts

Stability Adjustment

+7.0 pts

Final Composite Risk29 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 29 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Aggressive Capex (31.2%) amidst slow revenue growth (-10.9%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 3.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

NOCIL: Net Profit collapsed by 71.2% from FY2025 Q2 to FY2026 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Inventory growth (26.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-9.4%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Operating Leverage Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 0.7%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.64	10.68	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+37.0	+46.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Specialty Chemicals (n=51 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹163.87(+0.56%)

1M Divergence-10.91%

1 Week-2.37%

1 Month-8.64%

6 Months-1.01%

1 Year-10.18%

2 Year-33.89%

3 Year-24.57%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

NOCIL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.3%

Trend QualityEarly Base

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score30%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing3%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.1386σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1277 of 2716

Top 47.02% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.4%

1M-8.6%

6M-1.0%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹159.45

200 DMA₹164.75

150 DMA Slope-0.7997%Declining

Relative Strength+4.47%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5041

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (20).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AARTISURFAarti Surfactants Limited	15	32th	+2	17	+1	Earnings QualityStable
AARTIINDAarti Industries Limited	20	46th	-5	24	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
NOCILNOCIL	29	72th	-5	7	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
CLEANClean Science and Technology Limited	40	98th	+5	18	+3	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration