Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹460.65(▲1.46%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

NRAILNRAIL Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: NRAIL Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Paper & Paper Products

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability

Flagium AI Risk Score

18 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in growth sustainability. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

8.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹460.65▲1.46%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability

+10.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

+8.0 pts

Final Composite Risk18 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 18 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Inventory Stress
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Aggressive Capex (97.6%) amidst slow revenue growth (-32.3%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

NRAIL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.98x in FY2026 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

NRAIL: Net Profit collapsed by 117.7% from FY2025 Q2 to FY2026 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Operating margin declined by 9.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Inventory growth (51.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (29.7%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -2.0%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

NRAIL: Revenue fell 26.8% while Debt rose 310.9% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	5.5	13.49	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+48.0	+37.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Paper & Paper Products (n=13 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹460.65(+1.46%)

1M Divergence-6.28%

1 Week+1.89%

1 Month-4.01%

6 Months-1.32%

1 Year+79.1%

2 Year+14.01%

3 Year+64.9%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in growth sustainability remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

NRAIL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.76%

Trend QualityDeveloping

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score65%

Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)

Probability of Advancing76%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.1703σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1346 of 2716

Top 49.56% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+1.9%

1M-4.0%

6M-1.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹457.04

200 DMA₹442.95

150 DMA Slope+1.2735%Rising

Relative Strength+1.48%Neutral

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.4162

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (29).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
NRAILNRAIL	18	8th	-5	8	+0	Growth SustainabilityStable
ANDHRAPAPANDHRA PAPER LIMITED	25	42th	-5	32	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
ASTRONAstron Paper & Board Mill Limited	29	50th	-5	28	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ABRELAditya Birla Real Estate Limited	60	100th	+18	42	+1	Balance Sheet StressElevated Structural Stress