NTPCGREENNTPC Green Energy Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Power Generation
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹81,508 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
15 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Weakness is detected in project execution and margins. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

29.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹101.34▲1.74%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+20.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+5.3 pts
Stability Adjustment
-10.0 pts
Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 15 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Profit Collapse
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 16.5 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
NTPCGREEN: Net Profit collapsed by 73.6% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
NTPCGREEN: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.89x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.277.30✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+51.0+39.5✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Power Generation (n=18 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹101.34(+1.74%)
1M Divergence-8.13%
1 Week-1.65%
1 Month-7.75%
6 Months+11.14%
1 Year-7.38%
2 Year-18.82%
3 Year-18.82%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

NTPCGREEN • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.69%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score57.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing69%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.0011σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1002 of 2716
Top 36.89% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.6%
1M-7.8%
6M+11.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹97.02
200 DMA₹98.19
150 DMA Slope+0.9375%Rising
Relative Strength+16.63%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1061
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (26.5).
ACMESOLARAcme Solar Holdings Limited
10 Risk
Sector %ile18th
Delta+5
Active Flags9
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

NTPCGREENNTPC Green Energy Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile29th
Delta+5
Active Flags4
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Stable

ADANIGREENAdani Green Energy Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile65th
Delta-5
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

GIPCLGIPCL
30 Risk
Sector %ile65th
Delta-5
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.564.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20263,0355212,38629,258
FY20252,4664741,99917,972