OILOil India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Oil Exploration & Production
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹78,842 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
29 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Weakness is detected in competitive position. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

75.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹484.1▲0.28%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+10.6 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Final Composite Risk29 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 29 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 8.0 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (69.3%) amidst slow revenue growth (-3.4%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
OIL: Net Profit collapsed by 69.7% from FY2023 Q2 to FY2024 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (8.6%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (5.5%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 30.7%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
OIL: Revenue fell 9.8% while Debt rose 27.4% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.9210.48✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+37.0+41.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Oil Exploration & Production (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹484.1(+0.28%)
1M Divergence-3.63%
1 Week-1.63%
1 Month-1.37%
6 Months+20.42%
1 Year+17.41%
2 Year+20.62%
3 Year+221.17%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

OIL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.96%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score80%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing96%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.0348σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1054 of 2716
Top 38.81% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.6%
1M-1.4%
6M+20.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹450.92
200 DMA₹437.57
150 DMA Slope+2.5064%Rising
Relative Strength+25.91%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.4887
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (25).
HINDOILEXPHINDOILEXP
13 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-22
Active Flags23
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

ANTELOPUSAntelopus Selan Energy Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta-5
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

OILOil India Limited
29 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta+5
Active Flags8
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
329.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202638,9817,55110,68435,959
FY202537,8307,04011,33229,816
FY202437,6466,98010,93323,640
FY202341,7589,85411,41018,549