OLAELECOla Electric Mobility Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

2/3 Wheelers
Risk ClassModerate Deterioration
Market Cap₹10,498 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Moderate stress emerging. While not critical, underlying pressure is building.
50 / 100
+8 QoQ
Deteriorating
Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +3 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
39.830.76%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+20.0 pts
Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Final Composite Risk50 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 050 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
OLAELEC: EBITDA margin compressed by 8.8 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 724.9%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 43.7 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 8 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
OLAELEC: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -5.44x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (6.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-73.4%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (22.1%) amidst slow revenue growth (-42.5%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)7.273.96⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.8%5%🚨 HIGH
Safety Buffer+16.0+58.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: 2/3 Wheelers (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
39.83(+0.76%)
1M Divergence+6.68%
1 Week+5.99%
1 Month+8.94%
6 Months+10.27%
1 Year-25.8%
2 Year-66.23%
3 Year-66.23%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

OLAELEC • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.13%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score50%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing13%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+1.2235σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#190 of 2716
Top 7.00% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+6.0%
1M+8.9%
6M+10.3%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA35.34
200 DMA39.95
150 DMA Slope-6.0535%Declining
Relative Strength+15.76%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7167
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (8).

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262,460-1,833-7752,476
FY20254,932-2,276-2,3913,043