OLECTRAOlectra Greentech Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Passenger Cars & Utility Vehicles
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹7,797 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
8 / 100
+2 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is gradually increasing.

40.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,285.2▲4.44%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Final Composite Risk8 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 8 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
Inventory growth (52.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-22.0%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -0.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
OLECTRA: Raw material costs consumed an additional 3.5% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
OLECTRA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.49x in FY2025 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.555.61✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+58.0+56.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Passenger Cars & Utility Vehicles (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,285.2(+4.44%)
1M Divergence+0.91%
1 Week+4.5%
1 Month+3.18%
6 Months+3.7%
1 Year+3.39%
2 Year-26.36%
3 Year+67.09%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

OLECTRA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.12%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score47.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing12%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.5719σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#411 of 2716
Top 15.13% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+4.5%
1M+3.2%
6M+3.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,177.63
200 DMA₹1,269.16
150 DMA Slope-3.0419%Declining
Relative Strength+9.18%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0896
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10).
FORCEMOTFORCE MOTORS LTD
5 Risk
Sector %ile20th
Delta-5
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

OLECTRAOlectra Greentech Limited
8 Risk
Sector %ile40th
Delta+2
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

TMPVTata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta-10
Active Flags16
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262,327180104380
FY20251,814139141255
FY20241,16687143121
FY20231,10167-10134