Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹87.05(▼1.58%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

OMINFRALOMINFRAL Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: OMINFRAL Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Civil Construction

Risk ClassWatch

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverCompetitive Position

Flagium AI Risk Score

27 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

84.6th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹87.05▼1.58%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position

+15.0 pts

Earnings Quality

+10.6 pts

Stability Adjustment

+1.0 pts

Final Composite Risk27 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 27 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Relative Growth Weakness
Profit Collapse

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 3.3 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

OMINFRAL: Net Profit collapsed by 56.4% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

OMINFRAL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

OMINFRAL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.26x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

OMINFRAL: Revenue fell 30.8% while Debt rose 20.4% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	7.18	4.13	⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+39.0	+56.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Civil Construction (n=53 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹87.05(-1.58%)

1M Divergence-6.46%

1 Week-1.53%

1 Month-6.08%

6 Months-18.77%

1 Year-31.73%

2 Year-19.61%

3 Year+107.02%

Sector Average (1M)+0.38%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

OMINFRAL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.4110σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1896 of 2716

Top 69.81% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-1.5%

1M-6.1%

6M-18.8%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹94.02

200 DMA₹99.36

150 DMA Slope-4.7519%Declining

Relative Strength-12.43%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.4514

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ABINFRAA B Infrabuild Limited	0	0th	0	1	+0	GovernanceStable
OMINFRALOMINFRAL	27	85th	-5	6	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
AFCONSAfcons Infrastructure Limited	35	90th	+25	12	+2	Earnings QualityWatch
BRNLBharat Road Network Limited	44	100th	+30	16	+3	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration