ONGCOil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Oil Exploration & Production
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹3,54,072 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
20 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Weakness is detected in competitive position. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

25.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹265.05▲0.28%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-5.0 pts
Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 20 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (10.1%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (1.9%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
ONGC: EBITDA margin compressed by 1.5 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 3.4% of revenue YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 36.8%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.6410.48✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+46.0+41.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Oil Exploration & Production (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹265.05(+0.28%)
1M Divergence-13.78%
1 Week-7.81%
1 Month-11.52%
6 Months+12%
1 Year+17.24%
2 Year+11.3%
3 Year+99.3%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

ONGC • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.94%
Trend QualityDeveloping
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score65%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing94%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.4462σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1972 of 2716
Top 72.61% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-7.8%
1M-11.5%
6M+12.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹259.95
200 DMA₹251.79
150 DMA Slope+2.8500%Rising
Relative Strength+17.49%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.3852
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (25).
ONGCOil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile25th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Watch

ANTELOPUSAntelopus Selan Energy Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta-5
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026674,60449,793112,719142,055
FY2025675,65638,32990,868153,556
FY2024655,25957,10199,263119,755
FY2023692,90332,77884,211129,186