Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹61.6(▼0.53%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

ORICONENTORICONENT Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: ORICONENT Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Packaging

Risk ClassModerate Deterioration

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

46 / 100

+26 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

95.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹61.6▼0.53%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+18.6 pts

Competitive Position

+15.0 pts

Earnings Quality

+12.2 pts

Final Composite Risk46 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 11 → 46 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (11)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

ORICONENT: EBITDA margin compressed by 80.7 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.2%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Aggressive Capex (36.5%) amidst slow revenue growth (-29.8%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

ORICONENT: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -65.63x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

ORICONENT: Net Profit collapsed by 93.2% from FY2025 Q2 to FY2026 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

ORICONENT: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

ORICONENT: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Inventory growth (3.0%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-29.8%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 37.6%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

ORICONENT: Revenue fell 71.5% while Debt rose 31.5% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	9.75	6.71	⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+20.0	+51.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Packaging (n=23 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹61.6(-0.53%)

1M Divergence-7.06%

1 Week-4.05%

1 Month-4.79%

6 Months+5.08%

1 Year+49.88%

2 Year+76.55%

3 Year+177.98%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

ORICONENT • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.53%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score35%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing53%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.4320σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1944 of 2716

Top 71.58% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-4.0%

1M-4.8%

6M+5.1%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹62.38

200 DMA₹60.2

150 DMA Slope+2.1301%Rising

Relative Strength+10.60%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5539

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AGIAGI Greenpac Limited	5	5th	+5	8	+1	Competitive PositionStable
AERONEUAeroflex Neu Limited	15	36th	+5	19	+1	Competitive PositionStable
ORICONENTORICONENT	46	95th	+26	11	+1	Balance Sheet StressModerate Deterioration
ARROWGREENArrow Greentech Limited	47	100th	+27	11	+1	Competitive PositionModerate Deterioration