Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹4,066.6(▲1.51%)

Reporting PeriodQ3 FY26

ORISSAMINEORISSAMINE Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: ORISSAMINE Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Industrial Minerals

Risk ClassWatch

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

22 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

71.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹4,066.6▲1.51%

PeriodQ3 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+7.9 pts

Stability Adjustment

+14.0 pts

Final Composite Risk22 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 22 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Working capital efficiency
Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 221.8%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Operating margin declined by 375.6 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

ORISSAMINE: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

ORISSAMINE: Net Profit collapsed by 333.1% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Inventory growth (18.0%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-69.9%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

ORISSAMINE: Raw material costs consumed an additional 4.7% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 10 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

ORISSAMINE: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.24x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	7.25	9.59	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+44.0	+51.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Industrial Minerals (n=8 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹4,066.6(+1.51%)

1M Divergence-6.53%

1 Week-1.2%

1 Month-4.26%

6 Months-15.93%

1 Year-18.7%

2 Year-27.91%

3 Year+51.76%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ORISSAMINE • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.2552σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1553 of 2716

Top 57.18% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-1.2%

1M-4.3%

6M-15.9%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹4,427.24

200 DMA₹4,575.7

150 DMA Slope-3.3089%Declining

Relative Strength-10.44%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5824

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
GMDCLTDGujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited	15	43th	0	16	+0	Competitive PositionStable
ORISSAMINEORISSAMINE	22	71th	-5	8	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
ASHAPURMINAshapura Minechem Limited	35	86th	+22	18	+1	Earnings QualityWatch
NMDCNMDC Limited	35	86th	+17	15	+1	Earnings QualityWatch