PAGEINDPage Industries Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Garments & Apparels
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹34,689 Cr
Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
11 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in growth sustainability. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

56.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹37,365▲0.38%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Earnings Quality
+6.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-13.0 pts
Final Composite Risk11 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 11 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating cash flow
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
PAGEIND: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (22.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (13.6%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -7.6%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.925.02✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+55.0+56.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Garments & Apparels (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹37,365(+0.38%)
1M Divergence-0.29%
1 Week-2.07%
1 Month+1.98%
6 Months+0.38%
1 Year-17.46%
2 Year+7.6%
3 Year+1.29%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in growth sustainability remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

PAGEIND • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.7%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score47.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing7%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.0861σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#837 of 2716
Top 30.82% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-2.1%
1M+2.0%
6M+0.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹35,740.39
200 DMA₹37,594.8
150 DMA Slope-1.4682%Declining
Relative Strength+5.93%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1895
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10).
ARVINDArvind Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile19th
Delta-5
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

PAGEINDPage Industries Limited
11 Risk
Sector %ile56th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+2
Growth Sustainability

Stable

GOKEXGokaldas Exports Limited
36 Risk
Sector %ile94th
Delta+5
Active Flags26
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

KITEXKitex Garments Limited
40 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta0
Active Flags29
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20265,31176479412
FY20254,9977291,204-
FY20244,6025691,080-
FY20234,803571-2248