PANAMAPETPANAMAPET Forensic Risk Analysis

Lubricants
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
15 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in growth sustainability. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

80.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹315.55▲4.76%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-3.0 pts
Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 15 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Margin Compression
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (63.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (18.1%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
PANAMAPET: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -3.5%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
PANAMAPET: EBITDA margin compressed by 1.9 bps YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
Operating margin declined by 2.0 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)45.13✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+51.0+55.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Lubricants (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹315.55(+4.76%)
1M Divergence+10.51%
1 Week-9.98%
1 Month+12.77%
6 Months+8.59%
1 Year-12.78%
2 Year-9.74%
3 Year+18.25%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in growth sustainability remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

PANAMAPET • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.80%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score60%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing80%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.2584σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#644 of 2716
Top 23.71% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-10.0%
1M+12.8%
6M+8.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹286.1
200 DMA₹289.88
150 DMA Slope+1.4647%Rising
Relative Strength+13.10%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.7208
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (11).
PANAMAPETPANAMAPET
15 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta+5
Active Flags7
Accel+1
Growth Sustainability

Stable

CASTROLINDCastrol India Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta+4
Active Flags9
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20263,077213-6978
FY20252,8051871622
FY20242,371195-2825
FY20232,255233210-