PATELENGPatel Engineering Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Civil Construction
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹2,629 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
16 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Weakness is detected in competitive position. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

59.6th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹26.25▲0.54%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+11.5 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+5.8 pts
Stability Adjustment
-1.0 pts
Final Composite Risk16 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 10 → 16 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Profit Collapse
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
PATELENG: Net Profit collapsed by 72.8% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
PATELENG: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.71x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.834.13✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+50.0+56.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Civil Construction (n=53 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹26.25(+0.54%)
1M Divergence-7.88%
1 Week-5.47%
1 Month-7.51%
6 Months-20.45%
1 Year-37.2%
2 Year-57.52%
3 Year+1.55%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

PATELENG • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.4714σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2015 of 2716
Top 74.19% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-5.5%
1M-7.5%
6M-20.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹29.21
200 DMA₹31.43
150 DMA Slope-4.5479%Declining
Relative Strength-14.97%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5915
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10).
AHLUCONTAhluwalia Contracts (India) Limited
9 Risk
Sector %ile44th
Delta+5
Active Flags9
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

PATELENGPatel Engineering Limited
16 Risk
Sector %ile60th
Delta+5
Active Flags4
Accel+2
Competitive Position

Stable

AFCONSAfcons Infrastructure Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile90th
Delta+25
Active Flags12
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Watch

BRNLBharat Road Network Limited
44 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+30
Active Flags16
Accel+3
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.261.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
2.323.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20265,2692695601,216
FY20255,2602483631,615
FY20244,6332906881,910
FY20234,3221836931,770