PCBLPCBL Chemical Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Carbon Black
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹11,615 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
38 / 100
-4 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹291.25▲1.68%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+7.7 pts
Final Composite Risk38 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 38 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 3.3 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (9.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (0.3%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
PCBL: Net Profit collapsed by 59.9% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Operating Leverage Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 9 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
PCBL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.54x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (19.0%) amidst slow revenue growth (0.3%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -2.8%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.098.80✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+28.0+42.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Carbon Black (n=2 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹291.25(+1.68%)
1M Divergence-2.04%
1 Week+0.57%
1 Month+0.23%
6 Months-7.73%
1 Year-25.44%
2 Year+28.08%
3 Year+121.25%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

PCBL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score7.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.2630σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1571 of 2716
Top 57.84% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.6%
1M+0.2%
6M-7.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹297.59
200 DMA₹317.21
150 DMA Slope-3.6043%Declining
Relative Strength-2.24%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8827
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (23.5).
HSCLHimadri Speciality Chemical Limited
9 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-5
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

PCBLPCBL Chemical Limited
38 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta-4
Active Flags8
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.261.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20268,2281981,5764,825
FY20258,4524357605,380
FY20246,4574911,1054,820
FY20235,815442504943