Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹9.26(▲0.22%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

PCJEWELLERPC Jeweller Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: PC Jeweller Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Gems Jewellery And Watches

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹6,896 Cr

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

8 / 100

-1 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Minor improvements are visible in the risk trend.

26.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹9.26▲0.22%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.0 pts

Final Composite Risk8 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 8 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Inventory turnover
Operating profit margins
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

Inventory growth (-2.7%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-65.3%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

PCJEWELLER: Raw material costs consumed an additional 39.4% of revenue YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

PCJEWELLER: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

PCJEWELLER: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.04x in FY2024 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

PCJEWELLER: Net Profit collapsed by 260.8% from FY2023 Q2 to FY2024 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 34.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

PCJEWELLER: Revenue fell 74.6% while Debt rose 12.6% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	7.5	6.37	⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+58.0	+52.5	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Gems Jewellery And Watches (n=24 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹9.26(+0.22%)

1M Divergence-3.44%

1 Week+1.54%

1 Month-1.17%

6 Months-16.35%

1 Year-25.2%

2 Year+99.57%

3 Year+282.64%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

PCJEWELLER • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.2513σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1541 of 2716

Top 56.74% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+1.5%

1M-1.2%

6M-16.4%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹9.88

200 DMA₹10.69

150 DMA Slope-4.8539%Declining

Relative Strength-10.86%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7427

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (13.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
PCJEWELLERPC Jeweller Limited	8	26th	-1	8	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
AUSOMENTAusom Enterprise Limited	12	43th	+1	11	+3	Earnings QualityStable
BANARBEADSBanaras Beads Limited	25	91th	-5	11	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
LGHLLGHL	35	100th	+20	22	+1	Earnings QualityWatch