PGELPG Electroplast Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Consumer Electronics
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹17,634 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
23 / 100
-12 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

40.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹480.4▲2.13%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Final Composite Risk23 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 13 → 23 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (10)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
PGEL: EBITDA margin compressed by 4.2 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 18.3% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (50.9%) amidst slow revenue growth (-0.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 3.5 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (129.1%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-0.8%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
PGEL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.38x in FY2026 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
PGEL: Net Profit collapsed by 55.3% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
PGEL: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
PGEL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 34.7%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)9.179.30✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+43.0+42.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Consumer Electronics (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹480.4(+2.13%)
1M Divergence-12.3%
1 Week+2.88%
1 Month-10.04%
6 Months-17.04%
1 Year-39.18%
2 Year+85.61%
3 Year+191.66%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

PGEL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.7233σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2338 of 2716
Top 86.08% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+2.9%
1M-10.0%
6M-17.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹552.7
200 DMA₹551.88
150 DMA Slope-1.3596%Declining
Relative Strength-11.55%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.6180
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (24).
PGELPG Electroplast Limited
23 Risk
Sector %ile40th
Delta-12
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

BPLBPL Limited
29 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta-1
Active Flags25
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

MIRCELECTRMIRCELECTR
35 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta0
Active Flags33
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Negative FCF Streak

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20265,34319766597
FY20254,905288-77302
FY20242,760135186361
FY20232,1647746543