Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹586.8(▲1.88%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

PICCADILPICCADIL Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: PICCADIL Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Breweries & Distilleries

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverGovernance

Flagium AI Risk Score

9 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

23.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹586.8▲1.88%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment

+9.0 pts

Final Composite Risk9 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 9 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Working Capital Expansion
Capex Efficiency Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Working capital efficiency
Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 249.3%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Aggressive Capex (42.6%) amidst slow revenue growth (-79.5%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory

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Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	2.64	9.05	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+57.0	+52.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Breweries & Distilleries (n=14 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹586.8(+1.88%)

1M Divergence-5.63%

1 Week+0.39%

1 Month-3.37%

6 Months-0.5%

1 YearN/A

2 Year-5.11%

3 Year-5.11%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

PICCADIL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.1%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score22.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing1%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.1133σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1218 of 2716

Top 44.85% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+0.4%

1M-3.4%

6M-0.5%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹589.31

200 DMA₹604.8

150 DMA Slope-1.7769%Declining

Relative Strength+4.99%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8467

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (14).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
BCLINDBcl Industries Limited	5	8th	+5	13	+1	Competitive PositionStable
PICCADILPICCADIL	9	23th	-5	2	+0	GovernanceStable
ASALCBRAssociated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd.	34	77th	-3	19	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
ABDLAllied Blenders and Distillers Limited	35	85th	+20	15	+1	Competitive PositionWatch