Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹104.09(▲0.3%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

PNBPunjab National Bank Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Punjab National Bank Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Public Sector Bank

Risk ClassModerate Deterioration

Market Cap₹1,40,237 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

43 / 100

-8 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Early signs of pressure are emerging in asset quality. Pressure is receding in core profitability and credit costs. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹104.09▲0.3%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+11.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

+32.0 pts

Final Composite Risk43 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 24 → 43 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

CAR Decay
NIM Compression

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh

CAR Decay

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageQuarterlyActive for 10 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

PNB: CAR (12.56%) at critical buffer level (v/s 11.5% floor).

"Capital position is strengthening through fresh equity or higher profit retention."

NIM Compression

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

PNB: NIM declining for 3 consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin compression detected. Core interest income is being squeezed."

Risk Trajectory

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Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.75	6.50	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+23.0	+46.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Public Sector Bank (n=12 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹104.09(+0.3%)

1M Divergence-4.16%

1 Week-1.72%

1 Month-4.82%

6 Months-12.92%

1 Year-1.25%

2 Year-16.29%

3 Year+109.9%

Sector Average (1M)-0.66%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

PNB • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.1%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score7.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing1%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.6383σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2254 of 2716

Top 82.99% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-1.7%

1M-4.8%

6M-12.9%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹117.55

200 DMA₹115.51

150 DMA Slope-1.0598%Declining

Relative Strength-7.43%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1151

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (20).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
BANKINDIABank of India	20	45th	-4	12	+0	SolvencyWatch
BANKBARODABank of Baroda	26	64th	-5	11	+0	GovernanceWatch
CANBKCanara Bank	34	82th	-17	17	+0	SolvencyWatch
PNBPunjab National Bank	43	100th	-8	2	+0	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration