PRABHAPRABHA Forensic Risk Analysis

Oil Exploration & Production
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
29 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure is receding in project execution and margins. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

75.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹157.83▼0.09%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+11.9 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+7.0 pts
Final Composite Risk29 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 29 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 2229.9%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (965.5%) amidst slow revenue growth (-75.6%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
PRABHA: Raw material costs consumed an additional 31.9% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (-2.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (15.5%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
PRABHA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.40x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)710.48✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+37.0+41.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Oil Exploration & Production (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹157.83(-0.09%)
1M Divergence-4.63%
1 Week-1.04%
1 Month-2.36%
6 Months-17.41%
1 Year-28.43%
2 Year-12.28%
3 Year-12.28%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

PRABHA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.5070σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2074 of 2716
Top 76.36% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.0%
1M-2.4%
6M-17.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹174.11
200 DMA₹189.66
150 DMA Slope-3.9052%Declining
Relative Strength-10.96%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)2.1178
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (25).
HINDOILEXPHINDOILEXP
13 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-22
Active Flags23
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

ANTELOPUSAntelopus Selan Energy Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta-5
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

PRABHAPRABHA
29 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta-5
Active Flags5
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.120.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.564.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202681-3163
FY20254-1-6126