PREMEXPLNPREMEXPLN Forensic Risk Analysis

Explosives
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
6 / 100
-4 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

50.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹651.85▲1.28%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+6.4 pts
Final Composite Risk6 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 6 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Margin Compression
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Inventory growth (74.7%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-14.6%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
PREMEXPLN: EBITDA margin compressed by 3.4 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 55.8% of revenue YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Operating margin declined by 7.7 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 2.7%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2024
PREMEXPLN: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.08x in FY2024 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.735.44⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+60.0+60.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Explosives (n=3 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹651.85(+1.28%)
1M Divergence+13.85%
1 Week-10.16%
1 Month+16.12%
6 Months+21.85%
1 Year+14%
2 Year+29.28%
3 Year+686.02%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

PREMEXPLN • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.23%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score40%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing23%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.9344σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#266 of 2716
Top 9.79% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-10.2%
1M+16.1%
6M+21.9%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹521.97
200 DMA₹532.48
150 DMA Slope-0.7262%Declining
Relative Strength+27.34%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.8003
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (6).
PREMEXPLNPREMEXPLN
6 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta-4
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

GOCLCORPGOCLCORP
15 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+2
Active Flags19
Accel+3
Competitive Position

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.868th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202643046-132
FY20254202911841
FY2024276287961
FY202320472183