PRICOLLTDPricol Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Auto Components & Equipments
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹7,154 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
9 / 100
+3 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is gradually increasing.

42.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹565.85▲0.59%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+8.8 pts
Final Composite Risk9 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 9 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Debt growth
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -14.3%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 2.2 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.365.20✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+57.0+55.5✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Auto Components & Equipments (n=74 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹565.85(+0.59%)
1M Divergence-3.47%
1 Week+0.65%
1 Month-1.2%
6 Months-8.62%
1 Year+27.42%
2 Year+30.01%
3 Year+139.16%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

PRICOLLTD • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.33%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score20%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing33%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.3375σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1741 of 2716
Top 64.10% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.7%
1M-1.2%
6M-8.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹588.91
200 DMA₹565.57
150 DMA Slope+1.1087%Rising
Relative Strength-3.90%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.5404
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10.5).
PRICOLLTDPricol Limited
9 Risk
Sector %ile42th
Delta+3
Active Flags3
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

ASALAutomotive Stampings and Assemblies Limited
19 Risk
Sector %ile73th
Delta-5
Active Flags20
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

ALICONAlicon Castalloy Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile74th
Delta-5
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ARE&MAmara Raja Energy & Mobility Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile89th
Delta-5
Active Flags19
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
5.656th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20264,052251281363
FY20252,709167309125
FY20242,28514125547
FY20231,96312516689