PTCILPTC Industries Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Other Industrial Products
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹24,585 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
30 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

83.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹19,380▲4.82%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+11.9 pts
Stability Adjustment
+18.0 pts
Final Composite Risk30 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 30 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Margin Compression
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -11.2%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (218.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (64.4%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
PTCIL: Raw material costs consumed an additional 17.2% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 11.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
PTCIL: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
PTCIL: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2025
PTCIL: Net Profit collapsed by 56.6% from FY2024 Q1 to FY2025 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)9.097.17⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+36.0+56.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Other Industrial Products (n=13 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹19,380(+4.82%)
1M Divergence+18.35%
1 Week+17.23%
1 Month+20.61%
6 Months+6.13%
1 Year+26.83%
2 Year+131.28%
3 Year+321.11%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

PTCIL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.96%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score82.5%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing96%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.5535σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#422 of 2716
Top 15.54% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+17.2%
1M+20.6%
6M+6.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹17,316.17
200 DMA₹16,710.58
150 DMA Slope+0.5519%Rising
Relative Strength+10.85%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1053
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10).
BEARDSELLBeardsell Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-5
Active Flags2
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

ADORAdor Welding Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta-5
Active Flags11
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

PTCILPTC Industries Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile83th
Delta-5
Active Flags8
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.120.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026643102-69261
FY2025342611461
FY202427042-96182