RAILTELRailtel Corporation Of India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Other Telecom Services
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹9,468 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
8 / 100
+3 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
3161.51%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+8.0 pts
Final Composite Risk8 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 08 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Cash Conversion Deficit
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating cash flow
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
RAILTEL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)1.642.97✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+58.0+58.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Other Telecom Services (n=3 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
316(+1.51%)
1M Divergence-2.71%
1 Week-2.48%
1 Month-2.33%
6 Months-4.05%
1 Year-20.16%
2 Year-22.25%
3 Year+175.77%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

RAILTEL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score15%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.1187σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1235 of 2716
Top 45.47% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-2.5%
1M-2.3%
6M-4.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA327.34
200 DMA336.81
150 DMA Slope-2.0115%Declining
Relative Strength+1.44%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.6476
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (8).
RAILTELRailtel Corporation Of India Limited
8 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta+3
Active Flags2
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Stable

ROUTEROUTE MOBILE LIMITED
14 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta0
Active Flags12
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20264,328346316-
FY20253,551300255-
FY20242,622246556-
FY20232,002189230-