RAINBOWRainbow Childrens Medicare Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Hospital
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹12,234 Cr
Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
18 / 100
+4 QoQ
Deteriorating
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in growth sustainability. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

56.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +3 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,341.4▼2.06%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Final Composite Risk18 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 18 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (51.0%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (20.9%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (66.7%) amidst slow revenue growth (5.7%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 10.4%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.186.95✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+48.0+51.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Hospital (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,341.4(-2.06%)
1M Divergence+4.85%
1 Week-1.76%
1 Month+7.11%
6 Months-0.46%
1 Year-2.19%
2 Year+3.61%
3 Year+44.95%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in growth sustainability remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

RAINBOW • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.5%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score47.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing5%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.0805σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#850 of 2716
Top 31.30% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.8%
1M+7.1%
6M-0.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,271.41
200 DMA₹1,314.38
150 DMA Slope-0.2124%Declining
Relative Strength+4.89%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0159
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).
RAINBOWRainbow Childrens Medicare Limited
18 Risk
Sector %ile56th
Delta+4
Active Flags5
Accel+3
Growth Sustainability

Stable

AGARWALEYEDr. Agarwal's Health Care Limited
19 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta-5
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

GPTHEALTHGPTHEALTH
30 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta-5
Active Flags22
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

JLHLJLHL
30 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta+15
Active Flags10
Accel+4
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,747282420-
FY20251,567244396-
FY20241,334218321-
FY20231,204212327-