RBLBANKRBL Bank Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Private Sector Bank
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹19,124 Cr
Primary DriverSolvency
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
39 / 100
+8 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Early signs of pressure are emerging in asset quality. Weakness is detected in solvency. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹344.15▲1.58%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Solvency
+27.7 pts
Earnings Quality
+11.0 pts
Final Composite Risk39 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 39 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • CAR Decay
  • GNPA Spike
  • NIM Compression
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
CAR Decay
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
RBLBANK: CAR (0.00%) at critical buffer level (v/s 11.5% floor). [Growth Adjusted: 23%]

"CRAR is dangerously close to the floor. Growth is halted to preserve capital."

NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
RBLBANK: NIM decline is accelerating (30 bps drop vs prev -16 bps). [Growth Adjusted: 23%]

"Early signs of margin compression detected. Core interest income is being squeezed."

GNPA Spike
🔭 Relative Sector RiskQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
RBLBANK: GNPA increasing for 2 consecutive quarters.

"Asset quality signals are beginning to normalize. Historical credit costs are now receding."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)8.4511.47✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+27.0+42.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Private Sector Bank (n=20 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹344.15(+1.58%)
1M Divergence+2.92%
1 Week-0.03%
1 Month+2.26%
6 Months+15.31%
1 Year+61.5%
2 Year+41.5%
3 Year+106.96%
Sector Average (1M)-0.66%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in solvency suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in solvency ratios and structural leverage, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

RBLBANK • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.93%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score75%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing93%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.2239σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#682 of 2716
Top 25.11% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.0%
1M+2.3%
6M+15.3%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹314.47
200 DMA₹304.05
150 DMA Slope+2.1232%Rising
Relative Strength+20.80%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7806
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (23.5).
AXISBANKAxis Bank Limited
22 Risk
Sector %ile37th
Delta-5
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

DHANBANKDHANBANK
34 Risk
Sector %ile89th
Delta-5
Active Flags17
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

RBLBANKRBL Bank Limited
39 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+8
Active Flags3
Accel+1
Solvency

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
2.120.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
5.656th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

CAR Decay

2026

NIM Compression

2026

CAR Decay

2026

CAR Decay

2026

NIM Compression

2026

CAR Decay

2026

NIM Compression

2025

CAR Decay

2025

NIM Compression

2025

CAR Decay

2025

GNPA Spike

2025

NIM Compression

2025

CAR Decay

2025

GNPA Spike

2025

NIM Compression

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202618,4648797,61216,796
FY202517,819717-82413,735
FY202415,4541,2604,95514,185