RITCORITCO Forensic Risk Analysis

Logistics Solution Provider
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
14 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

50.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹264.65▼0.66%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+14.2 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+3.8 pts
Stability Adjustment
-4.0 pts
Final Composite Risk14 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 14 → 14 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Profit Collapse
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
RITCO: Net Profit collapsed by 65.1% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
RITCO: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
RITCO: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
RITCO: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.90x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.335.73✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+52.0+52.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Logistics Solution Provider (n=23 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹264.65(-0.66%)
1M Divergence+20.97%
1 Week+0.51%
1 Month+21.35%
6 Months-3.48%
1 Year-9.78%
2 Year+6.95%
3 Year+51.53%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

RITCO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.11%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score55%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing11%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.4888σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#454 of 2716
Top 16.72% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.5%
1M+21.4%
6M-3.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹242.41
200 DMA₹249.57
150 DMA Slope-0.1627%Declining
Relative Strength+3.45%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.6424
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (14).
RITCORITCO
14 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

ACCURACYAccuracy Shipping Limited
24 Risk
Sector %ile86th
Delta+5
Active Flags20
Accel+2
Competitive Position

Watch

ALLCARGOAllcargo Logistics Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile91th
Delta-5
Active Flags25
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

SINDHUTRADSINDHUTRAD
30 Risk
Sector %ile91th
Delta-5
Active Flags19
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.929.1th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
7.474.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Negative FCF Streak

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,50532-33470
FY20251,19641-16313
FY20249373315259
FY20237542410206