Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹9.63(▲1.37%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

RTNPOWERRattanIndia Power Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: RattanIndia Power Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Power Generation

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹4,323 Cr

Primary DriverCompetitive Position

Flagium AI Risk Score

35 / 100

-1 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Minor improvements are visible in the risk trend.

76.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹9.63▲1.37%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position

+15.0 pts

Earnings Quality

+9.6 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.6 pts

Stability Adjustment

+2.0 pts

Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 9 → 35 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Relative Growth Weakness
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

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Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 4.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

RTNPOWER: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.47x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

RTNPOWER: Net Profit collapsed by 66.0% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

RTNPOWER: Revenue fell 8.1% while Debt rose 2.8% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.91	7.30	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+31.0	+39.5	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Power Generation (n=18 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹9.63(+1.37%)

1M Divergence-5.22%

1 Week+4%

1 Month-4.84%

6 Months-1.63%

1 Year-16.26%

2 Year-49.71%

3 Year+179.13%

Sector Average (1M)+0.38%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

RTNPOWER • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.6%

Trend QualityStabilizing

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score55%

Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)

Probability of Advancing6%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.1532σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#740 of 2716

Top 27.25% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+4.0%

1M-4.8%

6M-1.6%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹9.29

200 DMA₹9.94

150 DMA Slope-2.5855%Declining

Relative Strength+3.85%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.2976

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (26.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ACMESOLARAcme Solar Holdings Limited	10	18th	+5	9	+1	Earnings QualityStable
ADANIGREENAdani Green Energy Limited	30	65th	-5	15	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
RTNPOWERRattanIndia Power Limited	35	76th	-1	6	+0	Competitive PositionWatch