Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹158.99(▼0.16%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

RUPARUPA Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: RUPA Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Garments & Apparels

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverCompetitive Position

Flagium AI Risk Score

11 / 100

-4 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

56.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹158.99▼0.16%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position

+10.6 pts

Final Composite Risk11 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 11 → 11 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

RUPA: EBITDA margin compressed by 2.4 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 5.6% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

RUPA: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Inventory growth (4.6%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-1.6%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2024

RUPA: Net Profit collapsed by 66.1% from FY2023 Q1 to FY2024 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2024

RUPA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.14x in FY2024 Q1 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.55	5.02	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+55.0	+56.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Garments & Apparels (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹158.99(-0.16%)

1M Divergence+2.46%

1 Week+5.24%

1 Month+4.72%

6 Months-6.06%

1 Year-23.95%

2 Year-33.73%

3 Year-36.66%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

RUPA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.7%

Trend QualityEarly Base

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score40%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing7%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.3071σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#596 of 2716

Top 21.94% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+5.2%

1M+4.7%

6M-6.1%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹155.26

200 DMA₹166.38

150 DMA Slope-4.2818%Declining

Relative Strength-0.76%Neutral

Relative Turnover (RTR)3.3396

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ARVINDArvind Limited	5	19th	-5	10	+0	Earnings QualityStable
RUPARUPA	11	56th	-4	7	+0	Competitive PositionStable
GOKEXGokaldas Exports Limited	36	94th	+5	26	+1	Earnings QualityWatch
KITEXKitex Garments Limited	40	100th	0	29	+0	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration