SAMMAANCAPSammaan Capital Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Housing Finance Company
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹12,140 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
25 / 100
+15 QoQ
Deteriorating
Sentinel Insight

Early signs of pressure are emerging in asset quality. Weakness is detected in core profitability and credit costs. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +3 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
178.910.88%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+25.0 pts
Final Composite Risk25 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 2625 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • NIM Compression
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
SAMMAANCAP: NIM compressed by 910 bps YoY (to -2.93%).

"Early signs of margin compression detected. Core interest income is being squeezed."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.083.70⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+41.0+61.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Housing Finance Company (n=12 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
178.91(+0.88%)
1M Divergence+24.45%
1 Week+6.68%
1 Month+23.72%
6 Months+19.52%
1 Year+44.47%
2 Year+15.05%
3 Year+80.19%
Sector Average (1M)-0.73%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

SAMMAANCAP • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.55%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score62.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing55%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.8093σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#305 of 2716
Top 11.23% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+6.7%
1M+23.7%
6M+19.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA151.98
200 DMA149.22
150 DMA Slope-0.3904%Declining
Relative Strength+25.01%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1405
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (5).
REPCOHOMEREPCOHOME
16 Risk
Sector %ile91th
Delta+5
Active Flags8
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

SAMMAANCAPSammaan Capital Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+15
Active Flags2
Accel+3
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20268,190-7,145-7,46651,604
FY20258,683-1,8078,77242,726
FY20248,6251,214-12348,493
FY20238,7261,1304,00152,403