SDBLSDBL Forensic Risk Analysis

Breweries & Distilleries
Risk ClassModerate Deterioration
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Moderate stress emerging. While not critical, underlying pressure is building.
40 / 100
+5 QoQ
Deteriorating
Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +5 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹77.33▲3.02%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+9.6 pts
Final Composite Risk40 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 40 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Governance Integrity Shock
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (12)

CriticalHigh
Governance Integrity Shock
⚖️ Governance SignalsQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2027
SDBL: High leadership churn detected (2 key resignations).

"Governance concerns are receding. Promoter alignment and board stability are improving."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
SDBL: EBITDA margin compressed by 16.7 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.2%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 17.5 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
SDBL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -8.25x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
SDBL: Net Profit collapsed by 338.9% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
SDBL: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Inventory growth (3.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-7.9%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
SDBL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 39.6%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
SDBL: Revenue fell 18.7% while Debt rose 23.8% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.559.05✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+26.0+52.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Breweries & Distilleries (n=14 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹77.33(+3.02%)
1M Divergence-13.54%
1 Week-10.06%
1 Month-11.27%
6 Months-30.79%
1 Year-44.47%
2 Year-39.35%
3 Year-16.33%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

SDBL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score7.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.7301σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2349 of 2716
Top 86.49% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-10.1%
1M-11.3%
6M-30.8%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹95.61
200 DMA₹105.28
150 DMA Slope-5.5772%Declining
Relative Strength-25.31%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0757
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (14).
BCLINDBcl Industries Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile8th
Delta+5
Active Flags13
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

ABDLAllied Blenders and Distillers Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile85th
Delta+20
Active Flags15
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Watch

SDBLSDBL
40 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+5
Active Flags12
Accel+5
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
5.252th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262,30610211212
FY20252,83510442171
FY20242,4708698166
FY20231,4996014242