Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹345.35(▲1.72%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

SENCOSenco Gold Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Senco Gold Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Gems Jewellery And Watches

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹4,816 Cr

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

15 / 100

-18 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

65.2th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹345.35▲1.72%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+14.8 pts

Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 7 → 15 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Working capital efficiency
Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 92.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

SENCO: EBITDA margin compressed by 2.5 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 30.7% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (48.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (2.5%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

SENCO: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

SENCO: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2025

SENCO: Net Profit collapsed by 69.4% from FY2024 Q3 to FY2025 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

SENCO: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.28x in FY2026 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	9.09	6.37	⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+51.0	+52.5	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Gems Jewellery And Watches (n=24 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹345.35(+1.72%)

1M Divergence+8.03%

1 Week-1.07%

1 Month+10.3%

6 Months+12.09%

1 Year-8.32%

2 Year-21.48%

3 Year+67.57%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

SENCO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.68%

Trend QualityStabilizing

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score67.5%

Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)

Probability of Advancing68%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.2254σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#680 of 2716

Top 25.04% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-1.1%

1M+10.3%

6M+12.1%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹321.49

200 DMA₹330.14

150 DMA Slope+0.2588%Rising

Relative Strength+17.58%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9384

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (13.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AUSOMENTAusom Enterprise Limited	12	43th	+1	11	+3	Earnings QualityStable
SENCOSenco Gold Limited	15	65th	-18	7	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
RADHIKAJWERADHIKAJWE	26	96th	-6	11	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
LGHLLGHL	35	100th	+20	22	+1	Earnings QualityWatch