SHAKTIPUMPShakti Pumps (India) Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Compressors Pumps & Diesel Engines
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹6,228 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
35 / 100
0 QoQ
Stable
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. No major change in risk trend.

83.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹514.75▲0.3%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
+20.0 pts
Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 35 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 56.6%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 14.8 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (45.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (4.9%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
SHAKTIPUMP: Net Profit collapsed by 65.2% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
SHAKTIPUMP: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2024
SHAKTIPUMP: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.23x in FY2024 Q1 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)77.92✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+31.0+58.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Compressors Pumps & Diesel Engines (n=13 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹514.75(+0.3%)
1M Divergence-11.05%
1 Week+0.96%
1 Month-8.78%
6 Months-16.81%
1 Year-40.08%
2 Year+24.65%
3 Year+466.72%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

SHAKTIPUMP • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.4137σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1905 of 2716
Top 70.14% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+1.0%
1M-8.8%
6M-16.8%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹616.35
200 DMA₹670.39
150 DMA Slope-5.9698%Declining
Relative Strength-11.33%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5478
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (8).
CUMMINSINDCummins India Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile17th
Delta+5
Active Flags8
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

SHAKTIPUMPShakti Pumps (India) Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile83th
Delta0
Active Flags8
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

INGERRANDIngersoll Rand (India) Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile83th
Delta-8
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262,722258124486
FY20252,53340820168
FY20241,3741425483
FY2023971243973