SHALBYSHALBY Forensic Risk Analysis

Hospital
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
22 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

68.8th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹176.84▲4.46%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+15.0 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Competitive Position
+9.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
-13.0 pts
Final Composite Risk22 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 22 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (11)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 3.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
SHALBY: EBITDA margin compressed by 9.3 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 5.1% of revenue YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (27.9%) amidst slow revenue growth (5.5%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
SHALBY: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
SHALBY: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
SHALBY: Net Profit collapsed by 176.0% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (17.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (9.4%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
SHALBY: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.03x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 19.2%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)8.426.95⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+44.0+51.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Hospital (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹176.84(+4.46%)
1M Divergence+7.8%
1 Week+1.67%
1 Month+10.07%
6 Months-11.86%
1 Year-3.71%
2 Year-31.22%
3 Year+23.78%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

SHALBY • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score10%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.2213σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#686 of 2716
Top 25.26% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+1.7%
1M+10.1%
6M-11.9%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹178.94
200 DMA₹191.61
150 DMA Slope-6.1534%Declining
Relative Strength-6.37%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.2156
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (15).
AGARWALEYEDr. Agarwal's Health Care Limited
19 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta-5
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

SHALBYSHALBY
22 Risk
Sector %ile69th
Delta+5
Active Flags11
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

KIMSKrishna Institute of Medical Sciences Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile94th
Delta0
Active Flags22
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

NHNarayana Hrudayalaya Ltd.
35 Risk
Sector %ile94th
Delta+23
Active Flags11
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
2.524.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
3.636th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,16835-0540
FY20251,1152-4427
FY20249538320314
FY20238276868181