SHILPAMEDShilpa Medicare Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Pharmaceuticals
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹6,298 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
25 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

65.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹517.35▲3.63%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+7.2 pts
Stability Adjustment
+18.0 pts
Final Composite Risk25 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 7 → 25 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (36.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (6.6%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (43.8%) amidst slow revenue growth (6.6%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
SHILPAMED: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
SHILPAMED: Raw material costs consumed an additional 3.9% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -2.2%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
SHILPAMED: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.90x in FY2025 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.57.70✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+41.0+47.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Pharmaceuticals (n=99 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹517.35(+3.63%)
1M Divergence+24.96%
1 Week+2.48%
1 Month+27.22%
6 Months+55.15%
1 Year+16.97%
2 Year+113.33%
3 Year+337.65%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

SHILPAMED • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.91%
Trend QualityDeveloping
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score85%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing91%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+1.6339σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#125 of 2716
Top 4.60% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+2.5%
1M+27.2%
6M+55.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹359.71
200 DMA₹370.66
150 DMA Slope+3.7088%Rising
Relative Strength+60.64%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)2.5924
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (19).
AAREYDRUGSAarey Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Limited
23 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta-5
Active Flags20
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

SHILPAMEDShilpa Medicare Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile66th
Delta-5
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

ALBERTDAVDAlbert David Limited
37 Risk
Sector %ile90th
Delta-8
Active Flags27
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

BALAXIBALAXI PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
45 Risk
Sector %ile96th
Delta+10
Active Flags40
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
5.252th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Negative FCF Streak

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,549243342658
FY20251,31078132586
FY20241,16032135936
FY20231,068-32226796