Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹984.65(▲2.42%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

SHYAMMETLShyam Metalics and Energy Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Shyam Metalics and Energy Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Iron & Steel Products

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹23,416 Cr

Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability

Flagium AI Risk Score

10 / 100

+4 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in growth sustainability. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is gradually increasing.

25.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹984.65▲2.42%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability

+10.0 pts

Final Composite Risk10 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 10 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Working Capital Expansion
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Working capital efficiency
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

SHYAMMETL: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

SHYAMMETL: Net Profit collapsed by 55.3% from FY2024 Q2 to FY2025 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Aggressive Capex (29.9%) amidst slow revenue growth (-4.1%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -2.4%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Inventory growth (50.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (25.7%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	6.18	7.53	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+56.0	+51.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Iron & Steel Products (n=41 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹984.65(+2.42%)

1M Divergence+10.43%

1 Week+0.57%

1 Month+12.69%

6 Months+22.9%

1 Year+13.59%

2 Year+63.19%

3 Year+239.38%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in growth sustainability remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

SHYAMMETL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.32%

Trend QualityStabilizing

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score55%

Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)

Probability of Advancing32%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.5582σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#417 of 2716

Top 15.35% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+0.6%

1M+12.7%

6M+22.9%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹844.97

200 DMA₹866.02

150 DMA Slope-0.1348%Declining

Relative Strength+28.39%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)2.8839

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AEROENTERAeroflex Enterprises Limited	5	15th	-5	14	+0	GovernanceStable
SHYAMMETLShyam Metalics and Energy Limited	10	25th	+4	6	+1	Growth SustainabilityStable
BEDMUTHABedmutha Industries Limited	30	85th	-5	28	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ELECTCASTElectrosteel Castings Limited	36	95th	-4	30	+0	Earnings QualityWatch