Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹807.1(▲4.38%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

SPALSPAL Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: SPAL Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Garments & Apparels

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

11 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

56.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹807.1▲4.38%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.8 pts

Competitive Position

+7.7 pts

Stability Adjustment

-5.0 pts

Final Composite Risk11 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 11 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Industrial Margin Stress
Relative Growth Weakness
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

SPAL: Raw material costs consumed an additional 5.6% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

SPAL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 10.5%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	3.83	5.02	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+55.0	+56.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Garments & Apparels (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹807.1(+4.38%)

1M Divergence-2.75%

1 Week+7.62%

1 Month-0.49%

6 Months+4.74%

1 Year-4.6%

2 Year+42.18%

3 Year+96.51%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

SPAL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.58%

Trend QualityStabilizing

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score60%

Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)

Probability of Advancing58%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.1218σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#789 of 2716

Top 29.05% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+7.6%

1M-0.5%

6M+4.7%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹732.57

200 DMA₹733.19

150 DMA Slope+1.4096%Rising

Relative Strength+8.84%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.6281

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ARVINDArvind Limited	5	19th	-5	10	+0	Earnings QualityStable
SPALSPAL	11	56th	+5	5	+1	Balance Sheet StressStable
GOKEXGokaldas Exports Limited	36	94th	+5	26	+1	Earnings QualityWatch
KITEXKitex Garments Limited	40	100th	0	29	+0	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration