SPANDANASPANDANA Forensic Risk Analysis

Microfinance Institutions
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹1,447 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
20 / 100
0 QoQ
Stable
Sentinel Insight

Early signs of pressure are emerging in asset quality. Pressure has stabilized in core profitability and credit costs. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. No major change in risk trend.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹255.3▲2.72%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+20.3 pts
Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 20 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • NIM Compression
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 9 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
SPANDANA: NIM compressed by 289 bps YoY (to 6.78%).

"Early signs of margin compression detected. Core interest income is being squeezed."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.646.43✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+46.0+52.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Microfinance Institutions (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹255.3(+2.72%)
1M Divergence+12.71%
1 Week-2.34%
1 Month+11.98%
6 Months-1.79%
1 Year-5.67%
2 Year-66.25%
3 Year-63.53%
Sector Average (1M)-0.73%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

SPANDANA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.68%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score60%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing68%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.0294σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#931 of 2716
Top 34.28% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-2.3%
1M+12.0%
6M-1.8%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹246.81
200 DMA₹248.43
150 DMA Slope+0.5278%Rising
Relative Strength+3.70%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.9863
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (14).
CREDITACCCREDITACCESS GRAMEEN LIMITED
15 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta+5
Active Flags7
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

SPANDANASPANDANA
20 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta0
Active Flags2
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
1.919th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,066-6998823,943
FY20252,424-1,0353,6695,656
FY20242,534501-2,7079,425
FY20231,47712-2,171-