STCINDIASTCINDIA Forensic Risk Analysis

Trading & Distributors
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
20 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

70.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹118.38▲0.66%
PeriodQ3 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+20.0 pts
Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 7 → 20 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 14.3 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
STCINDIA: Net Profit collapsed by 64.2% from FY2025 Q1 to FY2026 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
STCINDIA: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
STCINDIA: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
STCINDIA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -13.06x in FY2025 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.756.77✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+46.0+51.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Trading & Distributors (n=11 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹118.38(+0.66%)
1M Divergence+0.13%
1 Week+0.59%
1 Month+0.51%
6 Months+3.92%
1 Year-21.69%
2 Year-13.94%
3 Year+57.95%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in governance suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in structural transparency and audit trails, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

STCINDIA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.1%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score25%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing1%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.0366σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#923 of 2716
Top 33.98% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.6%
1M+0.5%
6M+3.9%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹118.99
200 DMA₹120.84
150 DMA Slope-1.8918%Declining
Relative Strength+9.41%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.4191
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).
STCINDIASTCINDIA
20 Risk
Sector %ile70th
Delta-5
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

ABMINTLLTDABM International Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta-5
Active Flags25
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

OSWALAGROOSWALAGRO
35 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+15
Active Flags13
Accel+3
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202512525-1711,981
FY20249651-231,981
FY20238532-631,987
FY202285-875-