SUPREMEINDSupreme Industries Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Plastic Products - Industrial
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹50,328 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
25 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

84.6th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹3,553.1▲0.92%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+25.0 pts
Final Composite Risk25 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 25 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 2.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (36.1%) amidst slow revenue growth (5.3%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (14.7%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-1.4%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)57.86✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+41.0+49.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Plastic Products - Industrial (n=14 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹3,553.1(+0.92%)
1M Divergence-4.19%
1 Week-0.5%
1 Month-1.92%
6 Months+6.35%
1 Year-14.82%
2 Year-31.71%
3 Year+28.87%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in governance suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in structural transparency and audit trails, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

SUPREMEIND • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.1%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score22.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing1%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.3482σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1767 of 2716
Top 65.06% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.5%
1M-1.9%
6M+6.3%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹3,645.1
200 DMA₹3,823.85
150 DMA Slope-2.3179%Declining
Relative Strength+11.83%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8765
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (17).
SUPREMEINDSupreme Industries Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile85th
Delta-5
Active Flags5
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

FINPIPEFinolex Industries Limited
27 Risk
Sector %ile92th
Delta-5
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

APOLLOPIPEApollo Pipes Limited
40 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+5
Active Flags20
Accel+5
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202611,2629541,215-
FY202510,5049611,004-
FY202410,2001,0701,431-
FY20239,231865890-