SURYODAYSURYODAY Forensic Risk Analysis

Other Bank
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverSolvency
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
38 / 100
-8 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Early signs of pressure are emerging in asset quality. Pressure is receding in solvency. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

87.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹168.92▲3.6%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Solvency
+18.5 pts
Stability Adjustment
+20.0 pts
Final Composite Risk38 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 38 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • GNPA Spike
  • CAR Decay
  • Provision Coverage Weakening
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
GNPA Spike
🔭 Relative Sector RiskQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
SURYODAY: GNPA spiked by 116 bps YoY to 6.69%.

"Asset quality signals are beginning to normalize. Historical credit costs are now receding."

Provision Coverage Weakening
📉 Trend DeteriorationQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
SURYODAY: Provision Coverage Ratio (PCR) dropped to 36.6% while GNPA grew by 49.4%.

"Asset quality signals are beginning to normalize. Historical credit costs are now receding."

NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
SURYODAY: NIM compressed by 124 bps YoY (to 6.58%).

"Pressure on core margins is stabilizing. Monitor for sustained interest income recovery."

CAR Decay
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
SURYODAY: Extreme capital crash detected (486 bps) despite high base. [Growth Adjusted: 29%]

"Early signs of capital erosion. Internal accruals are not enough to support loan growth."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)8.1819.17✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+28.0+40.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Other Bank (n=9 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹168.92(+3.6%)
1M Divergence+11.14%
1 Week+4.55%
1 Month+10.48%
6 Months+22.7%
1 Year+14.43%
2 Year-9.43%
3 Year+16.46%
Sector Average (1M)-0.66%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in solvency suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in solvency ratios and structural leverage, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

SURYODAY • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.98%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score90%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing98%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.7204σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#338 of 2716
Top 12.44% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+4.5%
1M+10.5%
6M+22.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹141.1
200 DMA₹139.02
150 DMA Slope+2.2712%Rising
Relative Strength+25.27%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.8387
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (26).
AUBANKAU Small Finance Bank Limited
26 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta-5
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

ESAFSFBESAFSFB
34 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta-8
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

SURYODAYSURYODAY
38 Risk
Sector %ile88th
Delta-8
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Solvency

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
4.747.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

CAR Decay

2026

Provision Coverage Weakening

2026

CAR Decay

2026

NIM Compression

2026

GNPA Spike

2026

Provision Coverage Weakening

2026

NIM Compression

2026

GNPA Spike

2026

Provision Coverage Weakening

2026

NIM Compression

2026

GNPA Spike

2025

NIM Compression

2025

Provision Coverage Weakening

2025

GNPA Spike

2025

GNPA Spike

2025

Provision Coverage Weakening

2025

NIM Compression

2025

CAR Decay

2024

NIM Compression

2024

CAR Decay

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262,5201526523,122
FY20252,1711151,3202,710
FY20241,8082169352,443