SWSOLARSterling and Wilson Renewable Energy Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Civil Construction
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹4,465 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
30 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure is receding in governance. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

86.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹191.59▲5.26%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+30.0 pts
Final Composite Risk30 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 7 → 30 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Low Interest Coverage
  • Profit Collapse
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 9 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
SWSOLAR: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.09x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
SWSOLAR: Net Profit collapsed by 91.0% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
SWSOLAR: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.254.13⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+36.0+56.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Civil Construction (n=53 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹191.59(+5.26%)
1M Divergence-8.42%
1 Week-0.1%
1 Month-8.04%
6 Months-14.69%
1 Year-37.29%
2 Year-72.7%
3 Year-33.63%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in governance suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in structural transparency and audit trails, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

SWSOLAR • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.3859σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1850 of 2716
Top 68.11% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.1%
1M-8.0%
6M-14.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹203.11
200 DMA₹217.03
150 DMA Slope-2.7210%Declining
Relative Strength-9.20%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)2.1354
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10).
ABINFRAA B Infrabuild Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags1
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

SWSOLARSterling and Wilson Renewable Energy Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile87th
Delta-5
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

AFCONSAfcons Infrastructure Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile90th
Delta+25
Active Flags12
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Watch

BRNLBharat Road Network Limited
44 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+30
Active Flags16
Accel+3
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20267,752-296-2571,164
FY20256,3418640901
FY20243,121-211602477
FY20232,126-1,175-1,8292,030