Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹131.15(▼0.28%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

TARCTARC Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: TARC Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Residential Commercial Projects

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹4,216 Cr

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

14 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

57.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹131.15▼0.28%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.6 pts

Stability Adjustment

+5.0 pts

Final Composite Risk14 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 14 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Relative Growth Weakness
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

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Impact Weight12/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2025

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

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Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Operating margin declined by 329.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

TARC: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -0.12x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

TARC: Net Profit collapsed by 6415.5% from FY2024 Q2 to FY2025 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

TARC: Revenue fell 68.0% while Debt rose 40.5% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	5.5	5.31	⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+52.0	+56.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Residential Commercial Projects (n=50 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹131.15(-0.28%)

1M Divergence-1.56%

1 Week-1.31%

1 Month-1.18%

6 Months-14.26%

1 Year-21.21%

2 Year-22.03%

3 Year+147.45%

Sector Average (1M)+0.38%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

TARC • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.5071σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2075 of 2716

Top 76.40% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-1.3%

1M-1.2%

6M-14.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹144.38

200 DMA₹148.24

150 DMA Slope-2.1369%Declining

Relative Strength-8.85%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5388

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AGIILAgi Infra Limited	5	31th	+5	1	+1	Competitive PositionStable
TARCTARC Limited	14	57th	-5	6	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
ARIHANTSUPArihant Superstructures Limited	30	73th	-5	17	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
AMJLANDAmj Land Holdings Limited	35	80th	+35	3	+1	Earnings QualityWatch