Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹312.35(▲0.24%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

TARILTransformers And Rectifiers (India) Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Transformers And Rectifiers (India) Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Heavy Electrical Equipment

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹9,185 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

12 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

53.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹312.35▲0.24%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+7.2 pts

Stability Adjustment

+5.0 pts

Final Composite Risk12 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 12 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Working capital efficiency
Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 57.0%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

TARIL: Net Profit collapsed by 100.0% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (78.7%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (0.1%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

TARIL: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

TARIL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.26x in FY2024 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

TARIL: EBITDA margin compressed by 2.4 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	7.42	6.30	⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+54.0	+55.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Heavy Electrical Equipment (n=31 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹312.35(+0.24%)

1M Divergence-8.81%

1 Week-2.69%

1 Month-6.54%

6 Months+27.8%

1 Year-40.93%

2 Year-10.72%

3 Year+645.47%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

TARIL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.10%

Trend QualityStabilizing

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score47.5%

Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)

Probability of Advancing10%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.1648σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#729 of 2716

Top 26.84% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.7%

1M-6.5%

6M+27.8%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹300.38

200 DMA₹350.71

150 DMA Slope-7.4982%Declining

Relative Strength+33.29%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0653

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (11).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AARTECHAartech Solonics Limited	4	17th	-5	4	+0	GovernanceStable
TARILTransformers And Rectifiers (India) Limited	12	53th	-5	6	+0	Earnings QualityStable
BAJELBajel Projects Limited	25	77th	-5	22	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ELECONElecon Engineering Company Limited	35	90th	+30	6	+2	Earnings QualityWatch