TATACHEMTata Chemicals Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Commodity Chemicals
Risk ClassModerate Deterioration
Market Cap₹18,015 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Moderate stress emerging. While not critical, underlying pressure is building.
59 / 100
+27 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹738.1▲0.56%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+18.6 pts
Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Final Composite Risk59 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 21 → 59 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (9)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 3.4 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
TATACHEM: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -12.17x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (20.5%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-1.9%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
TATACHEM: Net Profit collapsed by 110.8% from FY2024 Q3 to FY2025 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 12.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
TATACHEM: Revenue fell 1.4% while Debt rose 13.1% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (23.8%) amidst slow revenue growth (0.6%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)9.8311.00✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.38%5%🚨 HIGH
Safety Buffer+7.0+35.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Commodity Chemicals (n=15 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹738.1(+0.56%)
1M Divergence-11.03%
1 Week-5.84%
1 Month-8.76%
6 Months-5.63%
1 Year-16.72%
2 Year-26.53%
3 Year-20.57%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

TATACHEM • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.1%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing1%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.2498σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1537 of 2716
Top 56.59% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-5.8%
1M-8.8%
6M-5.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹748.24
200 DMA₹795.95
150 DMA Slope-2.7404%Declining
Relative Strength-0.14%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)2.5056
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (31).
ANDHRSUGARThe Andhra Sugars Limited
12 Risk
Sector %ile7th
Delta0
Active Flags21
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

AMNPLSTAmines & Plasticizers Limited
31 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta-5
Active Flags13
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

TIRUMALCHMTIRUMALCHM
50 Risk
Sector %ile93th
Delta+8
Active Flags47
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Moderate Deterioration

TATACHEMTata Chemicals Limited
59 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+27
Active Flags9
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
0.77.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202614,900-1,7151,2698,001
FY202515,1123871,7617,072
FY202415,7074353,0165,563
FY202317,0072,4342,9716,296