TATVATATVA Forensic Risk Analysis

Specialty Chemicals
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
25 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

58.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,214.4▲1.58%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+11.9 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-5.0 pts
Final Composite Risk25 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 12 → 25 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (12)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Operating margin declined by 11.5 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (50.2%) amidst slow revenue growth (-13.9%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Industrial Margin Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
TATVA: Raw material costs consumed an additional 6.1% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
TATVA: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
TATVA: Net Profit collapsed by 89.3% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
TATVA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.44x in FY2025 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
TATVA: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 17.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (46.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (23.2%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
TATVA: Revenue fell 4.0% while Debt rose 155.0% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)7.7510.68✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+41.0+46.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Specialty Chemicals (n=51 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,214.4(+1.58%)
1M Divergence-9.64%
1 Week+4.87%
1 Month-7.37%
6 Months-14.57%
1 Year+31.02%
2 Year+17.83%
3 Year-26.12%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

TATVA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.10%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score20%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing10%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.3334σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1727 of 2716
Top 63.59% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+4.9%
1M-7.4%
6M-14.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,292.55
200 DMA₹1,240.29
150 DMA Slope+1.3216%Rising
Relative Strength-9.08%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.4668
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (20).
AARTIINDAarti Industries Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile46th
Delta-5
Active Flags24
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

TATVATATVA
25 Risk
Sector %ile58th
Delta+5
Active Flags12
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

CAMLINFINECamlin Fine Sciences Limited
37 Risk
Sector %ile94th
Delta+2
Active Flags27
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

CHEMBONDChembond Material Technologies Limited
37 Risk
Sector %ile94th
Delta-8
Active Flags12
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.120.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Negative FCF Streak

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20265094231120
FY202538562536
FY2024401309814
FY20234294528170